Pepe Escobar picks holes in the al-Qaeda memo "discovered" by the US:

This latest US intelligence, though, makes little sense. For starters, al-Qaeda pigeons are highly unlikely to move around with computer discs in their briefcases: since early 2002 a disabled al-Qaeda has used women couriers to deliver strictly verbal messages. The memo says that the resistance against the occupation is 'struggling to recruit Iraqis'. This is not borne out by the situation on the ground - the resistance continues, even rising, despite the capture of Saddam. The purported memo also says that the 'new anti-American campaign' must start before 'zero hour', when power is scheduled to be transferred to an Iraqi administration in June. Again, this is not true. The resistance knows all too well that only the responsibility for security will be transferred in June, not power. The Americans will remain behind their heavily fortified military bases, but will remain as occupiers.

Which is fair enough, but I would like, in fact, to see his evidence that Iraqi resistance is "on the rise," because there is plenty to suggest that it remains a desperate coalition of geurillas and inflitrators hitting deliberately soft targets precisely because of its essential inability to fulfill its aim: retake Iraqi cities, and eject American troops.

Furthermore, and this may seem a terrible predicament to some, but it is nevertheless inescapeable: the best chance Iraq has of being rebuilt is with a strong US military presence for the time being as occupiers, peacekeepers, army etc.

If you think the situation is as bad as it can possibly be then you must surely agree with me: we should not talk about the future, we should talk about now.